Research · Planning eval · Results
Planning eval · 25 AI builds · 15 October 2026

How much you plan barely changes whether the app works. It changes what gets built.

One brief for a personal budget app, planned five ways. Claude Opus 5.5 built each plan five times, and another AI tested every build from the outside.

25/25 builds run26 exam questions per build6.8 build hours$108 compute at list price

How we compared the apps

Step 1

One app idea

A personal budget tracker, described in one paragraph.

Step 2

Five plans

An AI turned that paragraph into five plans, from “just the goal” up to “a full sprint plan”.

Step 3

25 apps

Claude Opus 5.5 built each plan five times, alone, in one session per app.

Step 4

One test for every app

Codex, a different AI, loaded the same bank files into every app and asked 26 questions, like “how much did I spend in January?” 20 have exact answers and 6 are judged from screenshots.

Step 5

A score per plan

An app's score is how many of the 26 it got right. A plan's score is the average of its five apps. We also logged build time, cost and code size.

Step 6

We checked the test

Some of Codex's test scripts did the app's work themselves. We blocked that and scored everything again.

The five plans, side by side

From least to most planning. Same brief, same model, same limits. Every number is the average of the plan's five apps.

Plan, least to most planning
Exam score
Build time
Cost per build
Code size
Goal only
The goal and the brief, nothing else
Exam score
84%
builds 75% to 94%
Build time
19 min
average
Cost per build
$5.51
list price
Code size
4,533
lines
The AI chose the scope. The biggest app, and the slowest and most expensive builds.
Epics
The brief plus 4 to 6 epics
Exam score
83%
builds 81% to 87%
Build time
19 min
average
Cost per build
$5.04
list price
Code size
4,392
lines
About as big as goal only, with the best design score (4.4 of 5). All 5 builds guessed the same rule for “safe to spend today”.
Stories
The brief plus a flat list of user stories
Exam score
82%
builds 67% to 90%
Build time
13 min
average
fastest
Cost per build
$3.52
list price
cheapest
Code size
3,583
lines
The fastest and cheapest builds. In 3 of 5 builds, fixing a merchant's category did not carry over to its later charges.
Epics, features, stories
Epics, then features, then stories
Exam score
86%
builds 85% to 88%
highest steadiest
Build time
16 min
average
Cost per build
$3.96
list price
Code size
3,838
lines
The highest and steadiest score. The only plan where all 5 builds got “safe to spend today” right.
Sprint
The full tree, story points and a two-week commitment
Exam score
67%
builds 52% to 92%
Build time
14 min
average
Cost per build
$3.55
list price
Code size
3,499
lines
Built only what fit in two weeks. 3 of 5 builds have no budgets, and 4 of 5 counted the daily sync twice.

Each white dot is one app's exam score on a scale from 50% to 100%, and the orange line is the plan's average. Orange numbers are the best in their column.

What we learned

1

More planning didn't make the apps work better.

Four of the five plans scored about the same, 82% to 86%.

2

Planning changed what you get.

With less planning, the AI added more on its own, and builds took 19 minutes and cost $5.04 to $5.51. With more planning, apps came out smaller, in 13 to 16 minutes for under $4.

3

Sprint planning hurt.

It dropped budgets to fit “two weeks”, but the AI only needed 14 minutes. 3 of its 5 apps have no budgets.

4

Spelled-out rules get built right.

Epics, features, stories wrote out how to calculate “safe to spend today”, and all 5 of its apps got it right. Epics only named it and got 0 of 5: all five guessed the same calculation, and the test marked it wrong.

5

Check the AI that checks the AI.

Before we checked Codex's tests, 29 of their passes were the tests doing the app's work.

One product, one model and five apps per plan, so read this as a strong signal, not proof.

If you plan with AI

If you want it to just work
Any plan without a sprint deadline will do. Build more than once, because two runs of the same plan landed up to 23 points apart.
If you want the steadiest results
Plan in epics, then features, then stories.
If you want it fast and cheap
Give it a plain list of user stories.
If a rule matters
Write the rule down, like a formula or a definition.
Avoid
Sprint deadlines. The AI cuts features to fit time it does not need.
Every exam question, plan by plan

How many of each plan's five apps passed each question (a partial counts half). Highlighted rows are the questions where the plans differ by two apps or more. One judged question, an on-screen over-budget warning, failed for every app because of a gap in the test, so it costs every plan the same.

CheckGoal onlyEpicsStoriesEpics, features, storiesSprint
C01Transaction Countexact4/55/55/55/51/5
C02Detected Accountsexact5/55/55/55/55/5
C03January Spendexact5/55/55/55/55/5
C04January Incomeexact5/55/55/55/55/5
C05February Refundexact5/55/55/55/52/5
C06February Incomeexact5/55/55/55/55/5
C07March Splurgeexact5/55/55/55/55/5
C08March Boundary Dateexact5/55/55/55/55/5
C09March Totalexact5/55/55/55/55/5
C10April Duplicateexact5/55/55/55/55/5
C11April Totalexact5/55/55/55/55/5
C12May Alert Spendexact5/55/55/55/55/5
C13May Alertexact3/53/53/50/52/5
C14June Merchant Fixexact5/55/55/55/52/5
C15June Incomeexact5/55/55/55/55/5
C16July Partial Monthexact5/55/55/55/55/5
C17Future Merchant Ruleexact5/55/52/55/52/5
C18Daily Dateexact4/55/54/55/52/5
C19Dining Safe To Spendexact2/50/54/55/52/5
C20Total Safe To Spendexact1/50/54/55/52/5
C21Dashboard Homejudged4.5/55/53/53/53/5
C22Budget Warningjudged0/50/50/50/50/5
C23Navigationjudged5/55/55/55/55/5
C24Savings Tipsjudged5/55/55/55/52/5
C25Income Sourcesjudged5/52/50/50/50/5
C26Sync Changesjudged1/53.5/51.5/53.5/51.5/5

Follow along